Do’s sense of too late “era stock, long-term investment or done” of the Nikkei column, faith is free! ?

Has an article entitled “strain, age” and “long-term investment or done” and 23 May date column of money undercurrent tide of Nikkei Web version.

Oh, I tried to read the Nikkei is negative or the long-term growth of the Nikkei average, but to verify the past data on average the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange is, or attention to NIKKEI225 brand in the world!?

What there is a feeling of too late, but including dividend rate of return if you buy all stocks of the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, was sold at an average share price of 2010 (compound annual) is
’10 Holding period: -1.3%
’20 Holding period: -0.6%
’30 Holding period: +5.7%
If you are a, resulting in the loss of 20 years, but if you bought 1 million yen in 1980, and now after 30 years it is 5 times more than 5.27 million yen, the best part of “long-term investment (the best part) • A seems “Nan.

If you think the content or negative long-term investment What, not really.
However, in this, it is also a representation not misleading as if be rewarded if long-term investment of more than 30 years.
It is unlikely that if you sell in 2020 with ’30 hold to buy in 1990, the increase in the compound interest of 5.7%, and there is no guarantee that not a negative as well as the last 20 years!

Position as negative, opinion of scholars and strategists are cited.
● the expected growth rate of Japanese stocks “3 percent plus 2 percent dividend yield of 1% of the growth potential of the Japanese economy”
● “population is reduced, without a policy for growth, ever-increasing rate can not be assumed in the stock market of the country not be expected expansion of the domestic market.”
● “era of strategy (keep buying) buy-and-hold was a disappointment equity investment”

Era of hold me over, I want you to predict it 20 years ago if strategist, but if salted stock of things in ’20 it is mass produced in Japan in No live?
So, what to?This column is not depressed until I place.

When you come right down to it,
● When you are buying and selling and captures the wave at the box rate assumption?
● is not expected market average, but some high-return if the individual stock
.

I think it’s cast doubt on the long-term investment even neglect in good mood is an important thing in order to prevent a brain freeze, but in “?What about?It I wanted a little more delving into “.

Even if the long-term investment in the market average, someone such as from recommending it, scholars because recite the theory trade you have timed the efficient efforts of stock selection is also a waste market, and to “faith” it I think that it should not be gone.
(Primary do not believe in scholars from say it’s safe.It is the believers bear the risks of the theory is not correct, not the scholar.)

I think there is a risk such as: long-term hold I.
● risk of “’20 lost” of Japan to continue expanding to “’40 be lost”
● to the risk that the assumption that soaring collapses in the long term developed countries and in Japan of low growth and aging, the stock price may not be a 1/4
● democracy and capitalism is causing the fatigue system, (already happening ←!) Risk of stagnation and social

I think there is a possibility that the assumption that long-term soaring does not pass as “faith” in the future share price of the past.
While deny a word of do not know the future fundamentals analysis, can faith and should asset has increased in ’30 after by-and-hold market average It is strange to me.

I think faith is free well to on the understanding enough that he take all, do you believe as if it may be something certainly market’s freedom (laughs), the result.

I think that is specific rare in the world indeed, the Japanese stock market is not a helpful trend of this stock price playfully half, but I think also might precedent valuable running the tip of the world half.