End up with globalization ahead – Tsujimoto

By globalization, emerging and developed countries have deepened unprecedented economic ties. Among them, currently, developed countries suffering almost without exception deep economic slump.Is supposed to be economic development together, why would like this are things.

This cause can be determined food, energy, finite and environmental resource constraints.We have to face, it is the finite nature of the earth. In fact, crude oil price was less than 1 barrel $ 30 in 2000, it to is currently the nearly $ 100 per barrel, has turned to China food importing countries.Food prices have risen (see accompanying chart).Finiteness of issues surrounding we may say that already actualized.

I would not change as a whole composition of economic growth> of developed countries economic growth of emerging countries by two scenarios globalization.Under such an assumption, while the emerging standard of living rises, living standards of developed countries slide into relatively reduced.

However, because compared to the developed countries of the population emerging population overwhelmingly large and 10 times, is that the emerging standard of living goes up, and simply thought, food, resources, energy increase pressure of consumption of is likely to become.Not only population growth, increased quality of life, resulting in an increase of these consumption.Currently, if the entire population on the planet has the current energy consumption and eating habits of the developed countries par, only the resources supporting it, energy, food production force, does not exist in the current on the earth.

Therefore, with the progress of globalization, one of the following occurs.

Scenario 1: lower the living standards of the developed countries, raise the living standards of emerging countries, I will balance at a certain.

Scenario 2: lower the living standards of the developed countries, but emerging standard of living rises, food at some point in time, energy, price increases of resources leads to poverty of the weak economy country, and produce a large number of refugees.

In the case of scenario 1, the standard of living is considerable energy saving of developed countries, as long as you do not want to resource saving, it is believed that considerably reduced.

In the case of scenario 2, if there is no country to accept a large number of refugees, the world is confused.There is a high possibility that large dispute occurs Tour of resources and water, food.

By limiting and limitations of productivity of arable land constraints factors arable land area of ​​the world of finite and economic growth of the world, the upper limit of the world’s population is defined.This kind of finite resistance, until the end of the 20th century but was never to be too conscious, 7 billion people of the population, are far beyond the capacity of the Earth.Nourish population reach 80 billion in 2030, to improve its diet, it is said that it is necessary to double the food production in the world, and is affected by the other hand soil degradation farmland many, are in also progressing desertification.Furthermore grain harvest area per capita is not only about the current 10 ares in the world average (FAO survey).I is the current situation is also not expected many development of new agricultural land.And think not that there is a way to very double the yield in ’20.

Already Africa deforestation, overgrazing, manifested environmental problems and the impact of climate change, has had an environmental refugees, will continue to increase environmental refugees will continue.Rise in food prices may be expected to continue as long as population growth continues.If more continue this state, it is difficult to First African countries food imports of weak sub-Saharan of economic power, then weak emerging countries of economic strength, eventually also spread to developed countries, it would be a big problem. Is likely to be made to seeds of international conflicts.

On the other hand, there is a limit to the reserves of fossil fuels, further unless reduce emissions of carbon dioxide proceeds warming, is likely to interfere enters the secure food production and water.

It can be mentioned the following three factors as a constraint for growth.

(1) resources, the finite nature of energy (2) the finite nature of food production (3) serious environmental destruction

Practical solution of these problems, methods such as the development of new energy may be considered, but not be clear of carbon dioxide emissions problem as long as the innovative technologies such as nuclear fusion is not practical, the possibility that the environmental destruction progresses The high.It would be realistic and have to rely on nuclear power for now. Dramatic increase in food production would not be expected to also make full use of biotechnology. It is impossible even to human environment is to control as gardening. The most realistic of, I think is population control.

In a world that finite of need in this way of social system reform, to economic growth in developed countries should not be big in the future, it is likely that living standards of developed countries continues to decrease.Social system based on the premise of economic growth in developed countries can not be maintained. Lifestyle is likely that it can not be maintained as far case to follow what scenarios. The near future, to it may be also unavoidable to migrate to the vegetarian diet of grain center, overseas travel becomes difficult, and would be satisfied by get easily overseas information instead might. However, still to seven billion people of the world’s population currently continues to live in peace back to Magarinari, in order to realize a sustainable world, would be forced to some degree of patience. Or, we like people of billion units starve to death, I wonder want the destabilization of the world.

References: “warning to civilization collapse” Jared Diamond (interview 2012, Asahi Shimbun January 3, 2012)

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