Risk of view emerged maximum optimistic political confusion that the Japanese economy

Still, is shrouded in uncertainty the future of the economy.View optimism due to the announcement of economic indicators, is pessimism’s an interlaced.Just come here, optimism slightly ahead of schedule, such as recovery of automobile production seems to be growing.

When the Cabinet Office announced gross domestic product in the January-March quarter of 2011 (GDP) Bulletin May 19, 2011, pessimism has spread.0.9% year-on-year, worse than (down 2% or so) pre-market expectations 3.7% lower, seasonally adjusted the size of the impact that “the earthquake had on the Japanese economy in the annualized real GDP Is has become clear “the (large letters).

.Negative growth of 3 consecutive quarters inevitable for the “April-June period from the think tank.It is believed to return to positive growth finally the July-September period, but a full-fledged recovery is reduced to 0% growth rate shift including, of throughout the year to year since the second half “and (Norinchukin Research Institute Co., Ltd.) pointed out that came out.

It was those trade statistics of the Ministry of Finance in April announced in May 25 also suggest the severity of future.Trade balance became a large deficit of 463.7 billion yen.Deficit in April ’31 the first time since 1980..View trade deficit decreased factor of GDP, the situation can not be optimistic future of the Japanese economy is to continue the spread.

(Excluding fresh food) national consumer price index in April in, it has been turned positive in 4-month and 2-year rise of 0.6% year-on-year Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications has announced the 27th, direction viewed as a move to deflation due to the economic recovery is almost no.In weak still, domestic demand was impressed the “bad price increases” as something that soaring international resources and food prices, such as crude oil has spread, the pressure more households, further delay recovery of consumption.

The deterioration in the 17-month and 0.61 times the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare announced the 31st ratio of job offers to job seekers of April (seasonally adjusted) even if the previous month 0.02 points lower.(Except seasonally adjusted, Iwate, Miyagi, Fukushima prefecture 3) unemployment rate in April and I rose to 6-month and 4.7% up 0.1 point from the previous month the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications has announced the same day.

In which these weak numbers recovery in production proceeds in a fast pace continues, the same the 31st, (2005 = 100, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry seasonally adjusted preliminary industrial production index in April May or later When you announce), optimism has spread rapidly.April performance was a modest rise of 1.0% the previous month and 83.5, but such as think tanks was focused outlook of future.Forecast index is the high growth of 8.0% compared to the previous month, June is 7.7 percent in May, from the restoration of the “supply chain is in progress, the recovery in production at a fast pace since May voice possibility of advancing high “and (Dai-ichi Life Research Institute economy) came out.

Needless to say, the point of production recovery, future of power shortages and parts supply network restoration.Voice automobile companies have been ahead of schedule in succession the normalization plan of production, and to ensure 800 million units in fiscal 2011, a 90% degree of fiscal 2010 are out.The parts supply network, “open are on the pace of recovery in each industry” That said (Nissei basis Lab), due to the hard efforts of the “private sector, compared to initial expectations, the recovery is progressing ahead of schedule common voice seen as those who are “and (Mizuho Research Institute).

Power shortage also improve.In addition power supply capacity to have been topper compared to the outlook in the March time, power-saving support has progressed, to level the power used by operations in Saturday and Sunday resting on weekdays, enhancement of in-house power generation, Kanto and Tohoku measures such as implementation is planned to increase production in the provinces other than.For this reason, “it is considered possible that power shortage does not inhibit the production activities and is growing as much as had been initially feared” (Dai-ichi Life Research Institute of Economy).

However, it expressed a review in the direction of the U.S. credit rating agency, Moody’s Investors Service is lower the rating of Japanese government bonds on May 31.(June 2) it was announced in May the fourth week, foreign investors have continued to net buying in the Tokyo Stock Exchange has turned to net sellers in the 30-week.This is because the in the economic and fiscal outlook deteriorates in the earthquake, run force of government for reconstruction and fiscal consolidation has been questioned, composition “risk of the Japanese economy up to politics” and (economist) is likely to continued.

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