Before about two weeks, from around last week, the Greek problem that seemed to do was calm, has been incandescent.
The’m complicated if there are many problems, but you want to place a brief summary.
Problem of first is the ECB versus Germany.
First of all, Germany is requesting a private burden.
The ECB has said default piece to fly, and not accepted as collateral the Greek debt, the possibility of a big confusion in the financial market in Europe is high.
The problem of domestic politics, Germany, are you claiming the private burden, but, initially, in the intention of the rating agencies should refinancing plan was influential is, that the default address this debt extension, the situation It’s has been a chaotic.
As expected, there are quite a lot of the opinion that Germany or not than break.
This means that EU funded.
Next, is the IMF.
The IMF, I would like to reform to think of their Greek.
Thirteen years ago, the Asian currency crisis, such as South Korea, now slaves of the IMF.
It is a fiscal reform and structural reforms in particular.
You should want to do in the IMF led to this.
So, the current stance would say that the IMF should not be continued financing the EU and does not guarantee.
Finally, Greece is a country.
In a sense, this is the most troublesome, what will happen, uncertainty is often.
Already, general strike is happening, domestic am confused.
To put pressure on lawmakers to oppose austerity measures, politics, you are attempting to cabinet reshuffle.
About it, disagreements in politics is intensified.
It hurt his head also opposition to claim the Euro withdrawal.
In order to avoid a default, the current administration, I need to sell assets plan and budget cuts over the next five years.
Germany even if broken, Greece country I have to settled.
Favorite is likely to do not even default, EU make his loan, but if confusion, rainy day, it is Euro Greek exit No way.
If it becomes, after the withdrawal, for a while, although I seem to be confused …
Finally, I will explain the benefits of withdrawal.
It is said that when I return to the drachma from the euro, the currency devaluation of about 30% would happen.
Now, at a stretch, international competitiveness is attached.Imported goods will be higher, but the alternative is so proceeds to domestic production goods from imports, domestic demand will be active.Export goods, there tobacco, and food, but the prices of Greece since become relatively cheap, you can also expect demand for tourism.
In addition, the financial side, you can do your own monetary policy.ECB even if the rate hike, it does not matter anymore.Degrees of freedom goes up even financial course.Not subject to pressure of the EU, you can have fiscal consolidation plan at home pace
On the other hand, there is a point of diminishing returns.
It is simple, but there is a possibility that can not be obtained credit to the EU (decrease of foreign investment), inflation pressure becomes apparent.
Finally, I will be exposed to the risk of exchange rate fluctuations.
It means how big credit of Euro.
I think in the long run, the benefits and disadvantages this might balance, but in the medium-term and short-term, person of the benefits is large.