Japanese and Chinese, is gone in the year 3500?

Article titled End of history and the last woman had come out to the Economist.Asian countries become more affluent, women learn to like the single life from “the yoke of marriage”.As a result the birth rate decreases.Declining birth rate leads to a decline in population.When the population of the country or to a zero birth rate of current continues?It is because you were to graph the country “Calculating the desk” and.

Let’s calculate an example Hong Kong.Is is 0.547 (% of one woman give birth to one woman) net reproduction rate of Hong Kong.As there is a population of women of 100 people if, it follows that 8 th generation 100 × (0.547) ^ 7 = 1.46 · · personality does not exist this net reproduction rate continues for three generations.

Female population of Hong Kong real and calculations similar at 375 million people, the population disappears at 25 generation.Assumed to be 31.4 years childbearing period of Hong Kong, × 25 = 785 years 31.4 years.That is, that’s no longer stomach Honkonhito in 786 years later, it’s calculation of the Economist.

This is only the calculation of the desk of course.Living environment is improved population is decreased, the birth rate, is it not? Improving?People think or not be many and?

That said, the Chinese also Japanese and Thai also German also becomes zero around 3500 AD According to the calculation of this desk.

Ethnic lasted longest in the graph shown I will survive until the year 5000 in Brazil.

It would be the United States has not appeared in the graph, which is equivalent to a high net reproduction rate.

Chinese and disappear at the same time Japanese and there is a difference of 10 times the total population, I felt funny Although the calculation of the desk.