Today, the results of machinery orders statistics of August have been announced from the Cabinet Office.Core machinery orders, ie, private demand, excluding ships and power has been considered a leading indicator of capital investment in GDP-based.It was recorded 804.9 billion yen +11% increase over the big +4.6% increase in pre-market consensus of the results of the core machinery orders in August.First, as follows to quote an article from the site of the Nikkei.
Exceed 11 percent increase market expectations greatly August machinery orders
According to the machinery orders statistics of August the Cabinet Office announced on the 12th, “private demand, excluding ships and power” is a 804.9 billion yen the (seasonally adjusted), up 11.0 percent compared with the previous month and is a leading indicator of capital investment.Increased in the two-month, I was much higher than market expectations (4.7% increase).This is because the manufacturing industry and automobiles (high-performance mobile phone) smartphones was driven, machinery orders affirmed the judgment that “there is a tendency to pick up” The Cabinet Office.
From the machine manufacturer, is calculated by listening to orders and production equipment of the factory machinery orders statistics.Private-sector demand of Excluding ships and power is a leading indicator of private capital investment in the previous six months from about three months.
Strong growth in August last year (12.8% increase) since “private demand, excluding ships and power”.By industry, manufacturing industry has increased 13.7%.Information and communication electronics equipment and electrical machinery order the semiconductor manufacturing equipment for smartphones.In response to the normalization of the production system, the car moved to pay-as-you-saw off immediately after the occurrence of the Great East Japan Earthquake.
Steel industry and chemical industry uncertainty about the future is strong, was only a modest increase in the yen.The non-manufacturing sector decreased 6.1%.Reaction of large orders for railway vehicles of the previous month rang.
In the reconstruction of the Great East Japan Earthquake-related, such as orders for transportation machinery, construction machinery and generators for private power generation was observed.But for now “not only generate movement fragmentary” (Cabinet Office).
prospect of “private demand, excluding ships and power” of the July-September quarter by the Cabinet Office was investigated in June by 0.9% year-on-year.I can achieve the outlook in September even if 10.0% decrease compared to the previous month if.Looking at the (Tankan) Tankan business conditions survey by the Bank of Japan, capital investment plan of the company’s strong, but there is also a possibility that the investment willingness of Japanese companies weakens the yen if prolonged.
Subsequently, the graph of machinery orders usual is as follows.Changes in month moving average behind 6 except for ship power and top panel, the so-called core machinery orders, trends in consumer-specific machinery orders of non-manufacturing industries with the exception of the vessel external demand, manufacturing, and power under.Both series are seasonally adjusted, part shaded is the recession.Also, the unit of the vertical axis is trillion yen.
First, when I saw in the month backward moving average or 6 because it is statistically greater the deflection of the monthly, never, 2 digits from the previous month, such as surprised this time, but was shifted upward greater than the trend of the past It should be understood that, not a.In other words, it is considered the core machinery orders which was in the recovery process with a slight delay from the trough of March 2009, will continue, and is said to be in a steady recovery process.Second, it is a recovery of manufacturing center, it’s read from the panel below, attention is required for the recovery of that machinery orders does not extend to the non-manufacturing sector.However, I will say this also, the same trend from the traditional and has continued.There may reflect the external demand orders from strong manufacturing industry, uncertainty will remain in the future in the global slowdown and the yen’s appreciation, along with the recovery in capital investment reconstruction demand if the full-scale You may continue to increase in the machinery orders.As is true for all indicators in the country, but they are in the tug-of-war global slowdown and reconstruction demand is domestic factors.Of course, it should also be noted sustainability with strength.
I deleted the opportunity to pick up alone, Nobel Prize in Economics has been award to Professor Sims and Sargent.Both I’m an economist and appropriate for the Nobel Prize in Economics to leave a good performance, but feels a little coupling and how it is just me?